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VANCOUVER, B.C. - Most Canadians believe the Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Games will finish in the red, according to a new Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll.
In a survey conducted last month, 84 per cent of those polled indicated the Games, which begin Friday, will go over budget.
The highest percentage was in British Columbia, where 90 per cent of respondents felt the Games will cost more than expected.
Just three per cent felt the Games would come in under budget and six per cent said they would break even.
"That was a pretty consistent view in all walks of life, in all parts of the country," said Harris-Decima senior vice-president Doug Anderson.
"It doesn't matter where you come from, what age you are, there are very few people who buy into the notion that this is going to be on budget, let alone under budget."
The telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Jan. 21-24 and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Anderson said skepticism about the Games budget could be due to many things but it's probably anchored by persistent memories of the massive cost overruns for the 1976 Summer Olympics in Montreal.
The entire Games ran in the red despite assurances from then-mayor Jean Drapeau that they could not lose money any more than a man could have a baby.
The city finally paid off the debt on the Olympic stadium - the most onerous symbol of the problems that plagued the Games - in 2006.
The 1988 Calgary Winter Olympics actually turned a profit.
Vancouver Olympic organizers say they have not spent more than budgeted for venues, although the city of Richmond laid out tens of millions more to upgrade the speedskating facility and the city of Vancouver, which backed the athlete's village, saw its budget soar up to $1 billion.
Still, VANOC officials believe the Games themselves will break even if a special $22-million cash injection from the International Olympic Committee is included.
The government and Games organizers don't include other projects such as the $600-million upgrade of the Sea to Sky Highway to Whistler or the $2-billion Canada Line rapid transit line, which they say would have been built anyway.
"There's a degree of cynicism sometimes, people waiting for the other shoe to drop," Anderson said from Ottawa.
The budget for actually staging the Games is $1.75 million, not including $900 million in federal money for security.
An October Harris-Decima poll found 72 per cent of Canadians felt hosting the Games brought more benefits than drawbacks, though only 50 per cent of B.C. residents polled felt that way.
"This isn't a question of whether the benefits outweigh the drawbacks," said Anderson. "This is a question strictly about the budget; do you think the budget's going to be on track?"
And for many, winning hockey gold will make the Games worth it.
While Canada has set a goal of ranking atop the medal standings, 53 per cent of poll respondents said the Games would be a success if the men's hockey team wins gold even if Canada doesn't outstrip everyone in the medal count.
Some 35 per cent indicated the Games would not be a success without the men winning gold.
"I think in terms of coast-to-coast emotional attachment to any particular event, hockey I think is the one you'll find in more corners of this country people saying I can't wait to see Team Canada play hockey," said Anderson.
Of those polled, 62 per cent expected Canada to do well in hockey, followed distantly by speedskating and downhill skiing.
The medal race appears less crucial: Only 19 per cent of respondents thought it was very important, 33 per cent somewhat important and 44 per cent not important at all.
"The pressure is not necessarily to be No. 1 and that struck me as a rather Canadian notion," says Anderson.
