As Squamish heads to the polls on November 15, one of the questions that electoral candidates may be asking is will the youth vote?
With a median population age five years below the national average, at 36.8, Squamish is a place where the younger population (defined as those 35 and under) could hold a significant sway over a municipal election. However, studies are showing that the growth of political apathy and distrust in political accountability makes it less likely that those ballots will be cast.
There is national and provincial data that suggests the youth vote has been on a decline. Based on a study performed in 2008 by professor Peter Loewen and Andre Blais from the University of Toronto, the Canadian first-time voter turnout has seen a drastic drop since 1965. This generational decline is known as the “cohort effect” and over time has been seen to “weaken the lifecycle” of democratic practices. In other words, if voters don’t turn out in their first year, they are less likely to get involved later in life. Political powers are thus not representing the population, but rather, representative of an older, more consistent voting demographic.
Marion Menard from the Parliament of Canada’s Social Affairs Division comments in an article from their website that the factors which affect voter turnout are as follows: no issues of interest, lack of political knowledge, lack of trust in the system and media influence. This information, in partnership with Elections B.C.’s research, explains that the average voter is more likely to have a higher median income, is older and has a university education. This data is supported on Youthvote.ca, where it has been calculated that only 38 per cent of eligible young Canadians voted in 2011.
But with no available data regarding the demographics of voter turnout in the last municipal election, it is hard to say for sure whether Squamish’s young adults are casting their ballots. Information is available, however on the election in 2011, where there was a 39.2 per cent turn out in Squamish overall. Of the 4734 votes, 379 of those were new electors. This turnout is seven per cent higher than the provincial statistics, of 29.55 per cent.
As per the Statistics Canada website, in 2011 Squamish citizens aged 18-29 accounted for 2,470 of the 12,077 potential votes. That is 22 per cent of potential voters; this percentage goes up to 35 per cent if you consider voters under the age of 35 years old.
What influences voting behaviour?
Based on this analysis, eight factors were found to significantly predict voter turnout.
This study corroborates previous findings regarding voter turnout.
It was found that neighbourhoods that were most likely to vote had:
• higher median income,
• larger proportions of older individuals, and
• a greater proportion of university educated citizens.
Neighbourhoods with lower turnout rates had:
• higher proportions of individuals moving into the neighbourhood from other parts of B.C. or Canada,
• greater proportions of recent immigrants to Canada,
• a higher unemployment rate, and
• a larger fraction of the population not in the workforce and with children at home.
Source - B.C. Stats
