Pause in North Shore's 'downward trajectory' as official COVID cases tick up

The downward trajectory of COVID cases on the North Shore may be slowing, if official case numbers are any indication.

The number of new infections has risen slightly in North and West Vancouver, to 446 officially recorded cases for the week ended Jan. 17. That’s slightly higher than the 409 cases recorded for the week ended Jan. 13.

While the official numbers are only a small subset of actual infections – most of which are not reported or included in official statistics – they still provide important information about overall trends, Dr. Bonnie Henry has said.

But official numbers can also vary from week to week according to other factors including who is being recommended for a PCR test and lab capacity to process those tests.

Actual numbers of new infections are expected to be about four times the official number.

The number of official COVID infections being reported is still half the number of cases reported two weeks ago, when the North Shore hit a record of 904 confirmed cases.

Of the official cases, 342 cases were in North Vancouver and 104 were in West Vancouver.

Positivity rates among those receiving PCR tests on the North Shore continue to be around 41 and 42 per cent.

Most people with symptoms at the local COVID testing site on Lloyd Avenue have been handed rapid tests to take at home instead of PCR tests. Health authorities have also stated it is not necessary for everyone to get tested.

Henry said recently that the Omicron surge has most likely already peaked in the Lower Mainland.

Hospitalizations are still increasing, however, with a record of 895 people in hospital with COVID reported Wednesday. Of those, 115 people are in ICU.

About half of the people in hospital with COVID-19 came to hospital for other reasons and only learned they were infected when they tested positive, Henry said Friday. Most are also experiencing a milder illness with the Omicron variant than they did with the Delta variant.

But Henry also warned that older people, especially those over 70, and those who are immune-compromised, still have increased risk of more serious illness.

“I think there's a narrative around right now that that Omicron is mild,” she said. But she warned, “with the high rates of transmission, there are still lots of people who do get seriously ill. And even among those people who aren't in hospital, this is not an innocuous illness. The data has shown that about one in 10 people will have symptoms that last for 12 weeks or longer. That's a long time to be seriously ill.”

The North Shore continues to have high vaccinations rates, with 46 per cent of those over 18 in West Vancouver and 41 per cent in North Vancouver having received a third booster dose of vaccine as of Jan. 18. Vaccination rates among children five to 11 remain a concern for health officials.

On the North Shore, between 63 and 72 per cent of children in that age group have received a first dose of vaccine.