Despite threats from the B.C. General Employees Union to escalate job action, labour experts say expansion of the current strike beyond core government services is unlikely and may not be in the union’s best interests.
More than 2,000 members of the BCGEU returned to picket lines Wednesday at sites in Victoria, Surrey and Prince George for the second day of a strike over wages.
David Black, associate professor of communications and culture at Royal Roads University, said the union’s decision to focus job action on government offices rather than sites where the public could be inconvenienced is strategic.
“From a labour perspective, you want to let government know you’re serious, draw public attention to your side of the argument that public services cost money and we do good work, but you don’t want to inconvenience the public so much that you put them offside,” said Black, who has served as a union negotiator for his own local.
Black said escalation could get messy if custodial workers at schools or other institutions hit the picket line, which could lead to teachers and others not crossing picket lines.
“I think [the BCGEU] is applying the brakes a little bit, exerting some pressure, but not so much that they lose public support,” he said, adding he believes they’d prefer to get back to the bargaining table.
Black also said the fact that the dispute is over money, rather than an issue like contracting out, suggests the strike won’t last long.
“The issues are money issues, and those tend to be more fungible than the strong matters of principle. I think this is more a negotiation around money, and that makes this more tactical and arguably more short-term,” he said.
The provincial government has offered the union a two-year contract with a general wage increase of 3.5%, while the union has countered with a two-year deal asking for an 8.25% general wage increase.
Paul Finch, president of the BCGEU, told the Times Colonist that “escalation is assured” if the province doesn’t come back to the bargaining table with an enhanced offer.
He called the government’s offer “frankly unacceptable,” saying it’s “well below” inflation.
“It’s well below what civil servants in Alberta right now are being offered by Alberta’s premier, Danielle Smith. It’s below the maximum allowable rent increase,” he said, adding that’s why his members voted 92.7% in favour of job action.
Finch said he would not discuss strike strategy, but did note the job action was targeting core government services and core government operations and not public services.
He said the lone exception was the picket line at the Royal B.C. Museum, where he said the work environment has an “incredibly toxic culture” that has not been addressed by the minister responsible, board or management.
“Frankly, the work environment there is incredibly difficult and unacceptable to our members.”
A Leger poll commissioned by the union last week suggested 74% of B.C. residents believe a public-sector salary increase is reasonable given the rising cost of living, while 60% were concerned that affordability issues are causing frontline public service workers to leave their jobs.
“People understand that the cost of living in this province has gone up. They understand that fairly moderate ask that we’ve put forward should be addressed by government,” he said. “People generally agree that government’s offer is well below what’s reasonable.”
But public sentiment could change, according to Justin Wiltshire, assistant professor of economics at the University of Victoria.
Wiltshire noted that the general wage increase is not the only compensation for union members. He said the workers also get annual “step/increment” increases within each job category.
At the same time, he noted, the province is facing a massive deficit, and agreeing to the union’s wage demands would only make the economic situation “a lot worse.”
“At this point, our fiscal situation is not awful, but it’s not projected to improve over the next three years,” he said, noting whatever the BCGEU manages to settle on will have an impact on all other unions in line for new contracts with the province.
“You really have to wonder what the implication would be for everybody else down the road, especially the lower-income people, when you have just these massive deficits that continue to grow,” he said.
“My sense is that the province has to hold firm. Even though the B.C. NDP in general is very aligned with the public-sector unions, there’s no way that they can cave here.
“If they do, they do not have a good chance at re-election because they won’t be taken seriously as fiscal monitors.”
Wiltshire said if the province has to start looking at raising taxes and fees or cutting services to handle significant wage increases, public support may start to erode.
“There’s a real question that people can ask about the actual tangible value that some of these people are bringing to the province,” he said. “And I say that cautiously, because I think that there is a lot of value to a highly skilled public sector.”
Wiltshire also noted that if the province gives in to union demands and sees its deficit rise and feels the impact on its ability to borrow at existing rates, there will be longer-term negative consequences for people, which will create resentment.
“I don’t want to dismiss the [affordability] concerns of the BCGEU or the members, but if you actually look at the gains that they are realizing year to year, once you consider the general wage increases and their step increases, they’ve actually been really seeing wage increases that are outpacing what is seen by the general public,” he said.
Black said the government is not in a position to be as generous as it was in the last mandate, when it gave the union 13% over three years, as it has neither the financial ability nor public support.
“That [last contract] was coming out of the pandemic, inflation was rampant, and people were feeling really good about government, mostly because of our success with respect to the pandemic,” he said.
“But I do wonder if the public will be as receptive to what BCGEU seems to be looking for.”
