There have been a lot of takes about Elias Pettersson in the past few months.
That’s pretty understandable. When you have the fifth-highest cap hit in the entire NHL and finish a season with 15 goals and 45 points, people are going to have strong opinions.
The takes run the gamut. There are fans who trust that Pettersson will get back to his old self next season once he’s free of the drama and injury troubles that plagued him this past season. Others think he needs to be traded immediately before his no-trade clause kicks in on July 1, believing that he doesn’t have what it takes to be true number-one centre for a Cup-contending team.
There’s a case to be made for both sides of that spectrum. It’s definitely concerning that Pettersson’s play and production fell off a cliff this season in the first year of his eight-year contract, but he has also, at just 26 years old, already shown flashes of being one of the best centres in the NHL. It beggars belief that Pettersson would simply forget how to be that player, but it’s also hard to ignore the evidence of this past season. So, both takes are valid in their own ways.
But the most unexpected take on Pettersson came from the mouth of Vancouver Canucks’ president of hockey operations, Jim Rutherford.
"He's going to have to buy into being a complete player"
“He's a guy that's always going to be able to get his points, but can you be a contending team with your top player just getting points?” said Rutherford on Monday at the Canucks’ year-end press conference. “And I can answer that question. The answer is no, you can't. So, he's going to have to buy into being a complete player.”
No, Pettersson is not “a guy that’s always going to be able to get his points.” That was the fundamental issue this season: he didn’t get his points.
Pettersson averaged 0.48 goals and 1.58 points per 60 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5, which is the lowest of his career in both metrics, particularly in goals. In his peak season in 2022-23, when he tallied 39 goals and 102 points, Pettersson averaged 1.14 goals and 3.05 points per 60 minutes.
That’s what the Canucks and Pettersson need to figure out this offseason: how to get him back to where he was producing at an elite level. The Canucks were 24th in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals and dead last in 5-on-5 shots this season — that’s the biggest issue that they need to solve.
Beyond that, there’s Rutherford’s assertion that Pettersson needs to “buy in” to being a complete player. That’s never really been an issue for Pettersson, who has played a 200-foot game his whole career. In the two seasons prior to this one, Pettersson even received Selke votes in recognition of his defensive game. At no time in his career has it ever seemed like Pettersson was focused on his own points to the detriment of his defence.
Even while his production fell off this season, Pettersson was still committed defensively. He led all Canucks forwards in blocked shots and was tied for 13th among NHL forwards despite missing 18 games.
Pettersson's underlying numbers are still strong defensively
Beyond just the blocked shots, there's plenty of evidence that Pettersson When it comes to the advanced statistics, Pettersson still had a significant impact defensively this past season.
According to PuckIQ’s Woodmoney statistic, which measures quality of competition, only one Canucks forward spent a higher percentage of their 5-on-5 ice time matched up against elite competition than Pettersson — J.T. Miller — and the Canucks outscored that elite competition 15-to-7 when Pettersson was on the ice, while breaking even at 5-to-5 with Miller on the ice.
According to Natural Stat Trick, only Conor Garland was on the ice for a lower rate of shots against than Pettersson at 5-on-5 among Canucks forwards. Only Garland and Nils Höglander were on the ice for a lower rate of expected goals against, and Höglander spent a lot less time matched up against tough competition.
According to Evolving-Hockey, Pettersson was third on the Canucks in defensive impact in Goals Above Replacement (GAR), behind only Garland and Pius Suter.
There’s certainly room for improvement — in past seasons, he’s been first among Canucks forwards in several of these metrics — but the idea that Pettersson hasn’t bought into being a complete player makes little sense.
"Petey can do it; he's got the ability to do it"
When asked for clarification on what Pettersson needs to do to be more of a complete player, Rutherford reiterated that he needs to “buy in.”
“Lots of people around hockey know the story when Scotty Bowman went to Detroit and talked to Steve Yzerman about what was more important: his points or winning Cups?” said Rutherford. “That’s when Yzerman’s game changed, and he bought into that. Sidney Crosby can play whatever way he wants — he’s one of the greatest players of all time — but he did the same thing when Mike Sullivan came in as the coach, and then Pittsburgh won two Stanley Cups back-to-back.
“There’s examples out there, great examples out there for these young guys that say they want to win a Cup, but do you want to put the work in? Just look at those two examples I gave, and Petey can do it; he’s got the ability to do it. He’s just got to buy into it and prepare properly in the offseason.”
It felt like Rutherford was reading from a script titled, “How to get more out of your star player.” For a lot of stars, Rutherford’s talking points would make perfect sense: a lot of offensive-minded players need to adapt and become more complete players, the way that Yzerman and Crosby did.
It also speaks well that Rutherford is putting Pettersson in that upper echelon of players or, at least, saying he can reach that level.
But Pettersson isn’t really a “young guy” in hockey terms, as he’ll be 27 next season. And, again, his issue isn’t that he’s primarily focused on the offensive end and putting up points, to the detriment of his defensive game. If anything, the opposite is true.
So, what’s the message that the Canucks are giving to Pettersson as he heads into the offseason? What, exactly, are they wanting him to work on?
"I didn't get the best genetics from my parents"
Clearly, Pettersson needs to have a big offseason, as his drop in offensive production was a major component of the Canucks’ struggles this past year. He said himself that he needs to get stronger.
“That’s what I need. Strength doesn’t come easy for me,” said Pettersson, before cracking a joke at the expense of his family. “Everyone trains hard, but I didn’t get the best genetics from my parents. Obviously, I was dealing with the knee injury last offseason that I was a little stopped in my training last summer, so it was hard to truly train at 100 per cent last summer.
But, with that being said, I’m just trying to look forward. It sucks we’re not playing still, but I’m going to take this time to take advantage of the extra month of training to come in and get ready for next season.”
Pettersson's agent, J.P. Barry, talked about his client's plans for a big offseason on Donnie and Dhali on Wednesday.
"He's talked to so many people about it, he has a pretty big plan," said Barry. "We have to let him execute it now, but he knows he has to have a much bigger summer. He doesn't have the same injuries in front of him, so he can get started pretty quickly...He's super determined to have a much better year. No player of his caliber wants to have had a year that he's had."
"I think we're going to see a different player in September," he added.
Rutherford did give Pettersson credit for his work ethic in recent days, noting that he wasn’t taking any time off between the end of the season and his training.
“He's going to have to buy into working hard,” said Rutherford. “I can give you some good news. It's a small step, but he's been in here working every day now for the last few days, and that's what we like to see. And we know that he's working hard, he's not just stopping in for a cup of coffee. So, that's a good sign, but he's going to have to do that all summer.”
What does Pettersson actually need to do to be a "complete" player?
While Rutherford was hard on Pettersson, general manager Patrik Allvin took a slightly more positive tack.
“I do believe that the last three years, Elias had one down year, which was this year,” said Allvin. “As Jim alluded to before, it’s not about individual points, it’s about playing the right way in order to win…We still believe Elias is more than capable of coming back as he has shown in the past here in Vancouver. I think this is about taking his game to the next level.”
So, what will take Pettersson’s game to the next level?
Given all the evidence points to a player who has bought in defensively but completely lost confidence in his offensive game, it seems that Pettersson needs to figure out how to get back to being a dynamic offensive creator.
As an example, Pettersson doesn’t necessarily need to look to Steve Yzerman or Sidney Crosby; he can look a little closer to home and emulate the way Quinn Hughes adapted his game in the 2023 offseason, going from a 7-goal, 76-point defenceman to a 17-goal, 92-point defenceman.
Hughes’ adaptation was partly mindset, as he changed his perspective from being primarily a setup man to creating scoring opportunities for himself. From that mindset came the work on the physical side of things, as Hughes analyzed how he could leverage his strengths as a skater and puck-carrier to get to the scoring ares of the ice to use his new shoot-first mentality.
That seems like what Pettersson needs more than anything else: a mindset where his first option is to get to a scoring area and shoot the puck, with passing off to a teammate a secondary option for when that first option is taken away.
Canucks fans saw Pettersson repeatedly pass up opportunities to shoot the puck last season and it was the most frustrating aspect of his game. Pettersson seemed to have a complete lack of confidence in his ability to put the puck in the net, which wasn’t an issue earlier in his career.
Pettersson averaged just 4.46 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, the lowest rate of his career by over a shot per hour. He also averaged 9.84 shots per 60 minutes on the power play last season, the lowest rate since his rookie year. That’s what needs to be fixed, not his “buy in” to playing defence.
Strangely enough, the path toward Pettersson being a more complete player might just be for him to be more selfish and focused on scoring goals, rather than eschewing points to be more responsible defensively.
Obviously, it’s a different process for a defenceman like Hughes compared to a centre like Pettersson, but Pettersson changing his perspective to be more of a shoot-first player could be the key to opening up the rest of his game.
