Sprint or marathon?
While most will agree that the verdict is in when it comes to anthropogenic climate change, and some seem convinced that they have all the solutions that you need to know, the hyperbolic rhetoric along with arbitrary nature of the interim goals can confuse and disorient anyone when it comes to identifying an optimal path forward.
An 80 per cent reduction of green house gas emissions below 2007 by 2050 is B.C.’s interim target. In real numbers this means moving from producing 63 million tonnes of GHG emissions today to 13 million tonnes in 34 years. From 2050 to the end of the century we need to get beyond zero emissions into net sequestration.
At COP21 in Paris last December, Canada made a commitment to achieve a 30 per cent reduction from 2005 levels by 2030. The European Union has committed to reducing emissions by 60 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050. Conversely, Alberta plans to increase emissions towards 2020, and then return to today’s levels by 2030.
In per capita terms, Saskatchewan and Alberta are among the world’s largest emitters at 68 and 67 tonnes, respectively. Per capita emissions in B.C., Ontario and Quebec are in the 10 to 14 tonne range, comparable to best performers in Western Europe, despite our enormous geographies and low population densities.
All this says that it is hard to compare plans, jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
How are we moving forward in British Columbia? Beyond our existing comprehensive carbon tax, in the Sea to Sky one of the most significant GHG contributors is the transportation sector which generates nearly 40 per cent of total emissions. B.C. plans to increase the low carbon fuel standard from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, as well as increasing the incentives and infrastructure for Zero Emission Vehicles. This will include developing regulations allowing local governments to require new building to be electric vehicle charging ready.
The development of “stretch code” policies for bringing building energy efficiency beyond the B.C. Building Code will be implemented along with creating innovation opportunities and financial incentives for advanced, energy-efficient buildings. There will also be a renewed focus on developing complete compact communities with growth focused near major transportation corridors and a strengthening of a community’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
But the single most impactful current initiative in British Columbia is enhancing the carbon storage potential of B.C.’s forests. This is a long-term plan that will take decades to have a major impact, which is all the more reason to act with dispatch. The forest industry is required to replant harvested areas but there are hundreds of thousands of hectares that have been deforested due to forest fires or pine beetle and are outside of the Timber Harvesting Land Base. These are the lands targeted for reforestation. Along with a requirement to recover more fibre from the forest, burn less slash and improve agricultural nutrient management, by these initiatives the annual provincial GHG emissions will be reduced 12 million tonnes by 2050.
All told, the combined emission reductions in B.C.’s current plan will achieve a 25-million-tonne reduction in emissions and get the province halfway to our 2050 targets.
The global focus on generating solutions to our collective GHG challenge is remarkable. Along with a worldwide carbon pricing mechanism, technical innovation will play a key role in generating the necessary reductions. Think of the impact that a scaled up version of the Squamish based Carbon Engineering’s “air to fuels” technology could have. And around the world, the pursuit of solutions to reduce then eliminate carbon emissions is relentless.
B.C. and Canada face tremendous challenges to achieving net zero emissions profiles and while some would declare that it’s a sprint, there is no doubt it’s a marathon. Send feedback to [email protected] or call 604-922-1153.
