B.C. Ferries expects to see its ridership increase by up to five per cent once the provincial government cuts fares on minor routes and restores the full seniors’ weekday discount in the spring, says Transportation Minister Claire Trevena.
Trevena told the legislature that the ferry corporation has been using forecasting models to predict the impact of fare reductions on traffic volumes.“They’re obviously very conscious of this because this is their business,” she said. “They’re estimating that it’s going to be less than a five per cent increase.”
Her office noted that fuel prices, the exchange rate and other factors could affect estimates.
Trevena dismissed Opposition concerns that a jump in traffic due to fare cuts will lead to more delays and sailing waits.
“I think it will average out in different places,” she said. “Some seniors may move to different days of travelling. Some vessels will obviously get busier, but some other routes that had faced a real decline might actually start seeing people using the routes again because they can finally afford it.”
Trevena noted that ferry traffic has been on the rise in recent years, with 21 million passengers using B.C. Ferries in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2017. “Each year, you see a few more people, but we think that there is a much greater potential when we do look at ensuring that the fares are actually affordable rather than the cost that they are at the moment,” she said.
The government has pledged to slash fares by 15 per cent on minor routes, freeze them on major routes and restore free passenger travel for people age 65 and over from Monday to Thursday, except on holidays. Seniors have been paying half the regular adult fare since the full discount was eliminated in 2014 when the Liberals were in power.
Liberal transportation critic Jordan Sturdy said he is suspicious of Trevena’s claim that a ridership increase will average out across the ferry system.
“I can’t help but think that this is going to create additional stresses on the system that will require additional resources,” he said in an interview.
He also questioned whether taxpayers will have to pick up the tab if the promised fare cuts result in a revenue shortfall at B.C. Ferries.
“If they find themselves in a deficit situation, what, ultimately, does that mean?” Sturdy said. “It means either, I suppose, additional taxpayer contributions or it means service reductions or maybe an impact on the capital plan. We really don’t know.”
Trevena said the potential impact on B.C. Ferries’ bottom line is the subject of ongoing contract negotiations between the government and the corporation.
“There may or may not be a gap there, but whatever change in service fee there is, if there is one — because, as I say, we’re still in discussions — will be reflected in the contract.”
The NDP has promised an operational review of B.C. Ferries, but Trevena has yet to say when that will get underway. “It’s going to be a very comprehensive operation review,” she told reporters. “So whether it is this year or next year, it’s going to be looking at a lot of different things. I am absolutely committed to make sure it happens and it happens as soon as possible.”
