TORONTO — A rising energy sector supported Canada's main stock index in a continued recovery from last week's brutal performance while U.S. stock markets returned from a holiday to bounce back even stronger after their worst week since the pandemic.
Pierre Cléroux, chief economist for the Business Development Bank of Canada, said the improvement started Monday with positive moves in Europe that U.S. markets were unable to take advantage of because they were closed for Juneteenth.
"So today, I think it's just investors are taking advantage of low share prices because of the significant drop over last week," he said in an interview.
U.S. President Joe Biden's comments that a recession wasn't inevitable was also seen as positive.
But Cléroux doesn't think these gains have legs amid a high level of volatility.
"I don't think we are at the bottom yet. There's still a lot of uncertainty about interest rates increasing, there's a lot of talk about recession, so I don't think it's over," he said.
While markets are likely close to the bottom, he said, it will still take some time for a total rebound. That could be dependent on positive inflation numbers that demonstrate higher interest rates are working.
However, Wednesday's inflation numbers for May are not expected to be good. And if central banks are unable to stabilize inflation, rates will have to rise in a bigger way.
"That's why the market is so worried about. So I think that we need more positive news before to see a full rebound."
Investors fear that higher interest rates will slow economic growth too much and prompt a recession.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 73.66 points to 19,257.29, after gaining 253 points to start the week. The Toronto market had plunged 6.6 per cent last week in its worst performance in more than two years
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 641.47 points at 30,530.25. The S&P 500 index was up 89.95 points at 3,764.79, while the Nasdaq composite was up 270.95 points at 11,069.30.
The worries over inflation and interest rates have been worsened by a spike in energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The August crude oil contract price of U.S. crude oil rose 1.4 per cent from Friday's close to settle at $109.52 per barrel Tuesday. It's up about 45.6 per cent for the year. The July natural gas contract was down 13.6 cents from Friday at US$6.81 per mmBTU.
Vermilion Energy Inc. led the energy sector, increasing 6.3 per cent, while Meg Energy Corp. was 5.7 per cent higher.
Surging gasoline prices have been tough on consumers, but Canadian retail sales still rose 0.9 per cent in April, with May's gain is expected to be around 1.6 per cent, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.
The numbers demonstrate that Canadians are not slowing down their buying, which is good news for the economy, but not for inflation. Cléroux said it's going to take more time to wrestle inflation in Canada because the economy is stronger, while there are already signs it is working in the U.S.
The Canadian dollar traded for 77.35 cents US compared with 76.96 cents US on Monday.
Eight of the 11 sectors on the TSX were up on the day. Technology followed moves higher in the U.S. with Lightspeed Commerce Inc. up 2.5 per cent.
Materials was also positive despite lower bullion prices.
The August gold contract was down US$1.80 at US$1,838.80 an ounce and the July copper contract was up 2.6 cents at US$4.04 a pound.
Telecommunications was lower with shares of Rogers Communications Inc. dipping 2.6 per cent a day after investors applauded the announced $2.85 billion sale of Shaw Communications Inc.'s wireless carrier Freedom Mobile to Quebecor Inc.-owned Videotron Ltd. The transaction could pave the way for final approvals of Rogers's $26-billion takeover of Shaw.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 21, 2022.
— With files from The Associated Press.
Companies in this story: (TSX:RCI.B, TSX:QBR.B, TSX:SJR.B, TSX:VET, TSX:MEG, TSX:LSPD, TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD=X)
Ross Marowits, The Canadian Press
